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Your Best Bet
By
Bill Dozer, SBR Analyst
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You spent the last two hours
handicapping a football game that is now approaching
kick-off. Your efforts tell you that the Green Bay Packers
should win the contest by at least three points. At the
time you started picking apart this Monday night game,
stat by stat and injury by injury, your sportsbooks were
offering a tasty -3 +105, BUT the line moved against you
while you were checking your almanac. Your bookmaker is
now asking you to give up -3.5 points at -110 for a play
on the cheese heads. If you don’t have access to a
bookie who is still hanging the -3, you are either forced
to pass on the event or go for it, risking more than you
know you should. Many of us are action junkies and would
lay the extra half point, although betting in this manner
will eventually eat away at our bank roll.
Handicapping an event and forming an opinion is only part
of the battle. Every profitable gambler and bookmaker
knows that line shopping, and more specifically, line
movement is the key to a player’s success. Following the
path of changing odds offers an enormous advantage over
the long haul. A NFL bettor may follow football lines all
week in order to gauge the right time to strike as betting
lines gradually move in and out of his favor.
We have all pushed on a play where we would have won had
we put more effort into getting that half point.
For most gamblers, sitting in front of online betting
screens all day is not a realistic option; although many
of us will not hit the magic winning percentage of 53%
without at least tracking the quick moving odds right
before the game. If you are on the verge of understanding
the importance of paying less and obtaining the better
line, but do not plan on wagering for a living, the half
time bet may be a valuable option for you.
Following Line Movement
Halftime odds offer you the ability to get a fresh line
and follow it until it comes off the board. Without going
into another article about line movement, watching a
normal line through its lifespan is something that can
take anywhere from half of the day to a week. A 2nd half
bettor watching multiple books is able to get a great feel
on which way the line is headed and pounce on the offering
that suits his play. He may use the same techniques in a
span of only 5 minutes.
Soft Lines
A soft line is one that deviates from the consensus.
Bookmakers only have a short span of time to take in
action, and on occasion will stray from the pack in order
to take the bets it desires. Other bookies will
consistently be the last one to move their numbers which
offers value when it has changed against you at most other
sportsbooks.
In the course of setting full game odds, bookmakers will
frequently peek at what one another are offering. Many
will base their odds on what their neighbor is doing and
go from there.
During halftime there is little opportunity for them to
consult with others. Out of five sportsbooks at least one
book’s opinion will likely drastically differ from the
rest. This line will adjust quickly as people bet into it,
but this initial soft line offers the occasional shot at
an extra two points you may not see offered again during
the intermission.
The Half-Time Line Advantage
Hypothetically, let us say you wanted to play the over on
a NBA total that was set at 190. You were able to follow
the line movement and earn a valuable 3 points towards
your bet. From time to time, these big line moves do
happen, and they also happen to 2nd half odds. Even though
you are wagering on half of the event, that doesn’t
necessarily mean you will get half of the line movement.
Getting 3 points from that 190 is a great find, but
getting 3 points on the 2nd half over/under total of 95
provides an even better advantage. It is a larger
percentage of the line you are trying to beat. Think of
this advantage as a head start in a race. A 20-foot head
start would be much more effective in a sprint than in a
marathon.
A Level Playing Field
I have heard gamblers say that they do not like this quick
betting style because it does not offer adequate time to
crunch numbers and trends. My response is that bookies
have already utilized much of the information you are
weighing into your normal capping.
At a game’s intermission, the player may gain the
knowledge edge. Linesmen are often forced to offer odds on
many mid-game events at the same time. It would be
impossible for them to follow every individual game as
closely as the one you are watching, and a week’s worth
of inside information no longer comes into play. This line
is largely based on what happened in the first 24 minutes.
Your Best Bet
The fast pace of halftime wagering is not for everyone. If
you don’t enjoy getting numbers dumped on you all at
once in order to get more for your buck then you may want
to spend the 2nd half on the bench. If you want the
ability to follow the life of a line, take advantage of
more unique or soft numbers, apply your effort to a
smaller contest and know as much as or more than your
bookmaker, then the 2nd half may be your best bet!
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About
The Author
Bill
Dozer: SBR Writer, Analyst, and 15-year
Sportsbook player. Bill warns other sports
bettors about scams and provides advice in
dealing with offshore sportsbooks. Get
your Free Special Report "No-Nonsense
Advice on How to Spot a SCAM
Sportsbook" at http://sportsbookreview.com/downloads/9.aspx |
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